空气污染、空间外溢与公共健康——以中国珠江三角洲9个城市为例

The air pollution,the spatial spill-over and the public health:a case from the pearl river delta in China

空气污染对居民公共健康的影响,引起了人们高度的关注。但大多数学者研究从样本的独立性出发且不考虑内生性问题,忽视区域之间空间相关性,所得结论和政策建议需谨慎对待。为了弥补上述不足,本文基于Grossman中国宏观健康生产函数,选取2001—2014年中国广东省珠江三角洲9个城市作为样本,选择以PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)作为空气污染的代理指标,在充分考虑空间效应和严格假设检验的基础上选择合适的空间计量经济学模型,对此进行实证研究。主要研究结果显示:空气污染对居民的公共健康带来了负面影响,即PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)每增加1%,导致哮喘疾病和内科门诊等疾病人数不断上升,且影响都比较大,尤其是对哮喘疾病的影响分别为0.2236%和0.2272%。经济增长对公共健康均有显著的促进作用,影响最大;其它财政医疗支出、卫生技术人员和人口密度等要素对居民公共健康的影响较小。由于空气污染的负外部性,研究还发现,区域之间空气污染的"溢出效应"对领域居民公共健康存在显著的影响,说明忽视空间自相关性的存在,会使得空气污染对公众健康的估计产生偏差。从长期看,空气污染对本地居民公共健康的直接效应都显著为正,PM_(2.5)间接效应显著为负,但PM_(10)间接效应并不显著。因此,各级政府除了在源头上治理污染物的排放,提高公共健康水平外,还应该打破各自为阵的行政垄断,应该作为一个整体,实现跨区域环保合作,共同治理和制定公共卫生政策等。这对区域之间协同减排和保护居民公共健康具有重要的理论和现实意义。

Effects of air pollution on public health of the residents has aroused great concern.Most of the scholars starting from the independence of the sample and do not consider endogenous problems,less attention to regional mutual influence of variables,the conclusions and policy Suggestions to be treated with caution.In the paper,based on Grossman China Macro Health Production Function,we chose nine cities of China’s Pearl River Delta in2001to2014as the sample data,and the concentration of PM10and PM2.5are chosen as the proxies for air pollution.We conducted an empirical research with the most appropriate spatial econometric models taking full account of the effect of space and on the basis of strict hypothesis tests.The estimation results indicate that air pollution has a negative impact on the public health of the residents.The increase in PM10and PM2.5led to an increase in the number of asthma diseases and outpatients A1%increment on PM10and PM2.5concentrations can generate about0.2236and0.2272percentage of increase of asthma diseases,respectively.Economic growth has a significant role in promoting public health in the Pearl River Delta.And public health is less affected by finance medical expenses,health professionals and population density.At the same time,the study also found that the‘spillover effect’of air pollution has a significant impact on public health.This shows that ignoring the existence of spatial autocorrelation will result in the estimation bias of air pollution on public health.In the long term,direct effects of air pollution on public health of local residents are significantly positive,and the indirect effect of PM2.5is significantly negative,but that of PM10is not significant.Therefore,in addition to governance the emissions of pollutants,improve the level of public health,governments at all levels should unite as a whole to broke the administrative monopoly,to achieve cross regional environmental cooperation,governing and initiating health policy.This has important theoretical and practical significance to reduction pollution and protect public health between regions.