应对气候变化关键技术创新差异的时空格局——以“一带一路”沿线国家为例

Spatio-temporal patterns of key climate technology innovation differences:a case of countries along 'the Belt and Road'

技术是应对气候变化的重要手段,关键技术创新差异的扩大将不利于各国应对气候变化的协同发展。以技术产出的专利为数据源,运用大数据挖掘工具、泰尔熵指数及空间计量学的方法和理论,分析了"一带一路"沿线国家应对气候变化关键技术创新差异的时空格局演变情况。研究结果表明:(1)沿线国家应对气候变化关键技术创新差异整体上呈现下降态势,并以初期震荡向后期平稳有升过度。(2)按地理位置划分的区域技术创新差异呈现高的空间集聚效应,且强强集聚与弱弱集聚具有一定时期内的稳定性,部分地区面临陷入技术贫困陷阱风险。(3)沿线各国应对气候变化技术创新差异存在趋同俱乐部现象,个别国家随时间推移可能经历不同俱乐部过度。针对这种趋同特征及各国技术需求特点可划分为4种类别:技术转出区、技术转入区、技术扩散区和技术承接区。技术转出区多集中在东欧某些经济发达、能源依存度高的国家。为此,本文提出如下建议:(1)各国根据自身情况制定减排政策的同时,需要国际社会制定与其相适应的差异化且有侧重的援助方案。(2)技术创新强国在涉及应对气候变化技术转移知识产权等事项上应该给予技术需求国让步。同时,技术转移应考虑区域协同及地理邻近的扩散。(3)中国应发挥好南南合作援助基金的作用,加强特定区域内共性技术的帮扶力度,建立与适宜国家间关键技术联合研发与示范机制,树立大国形象。(4)中国应加快沿线战略布局,根据不同区域各国应对气候变化的现状及其技术能力制定差异化的产业和技术转移的政策,加强与沿线国家的技术合作与贸易往来,形成优势互补的产业链。

Technology is an important means to deal with climate change.The expansion of key technology innovation differences is not conducive to the coordinated development of countries to cope with climate change.Based on the methods and theories of big data mining,Theil index and spatial econometrics,this paper analyzes the evolution of spatial and temporal pattern of key technology innovation differences of countries along‘the Belt and Road’Initiative with the patent of technology innovation output as the data source.The results show that:first,the difference of key technology innovation of climate change in countries along the route shows a declining trend on the whole,and the initial shock is smooth to the later stage.Second,regional technology innovation differences shows a high spatial agglomeration effect.The aggregation patterns of High innovation to High clustering(H H)and Low innovation to Low clustering(L L)have a certain period of stability.Some regions are facing the risk of being trapped in technical poverty trap.Third,there are convergence clubs in different countries along the route on climate technology innovation,and individual countries may experience different clubs over time.According to the characteristics of convergence and technical needs of those countries,four categories can be distinguished:technology transferring out area,technology diffusion area,technology undertakes area and technology transferring in area.Technology transferring out area is more concentrated in some economically developed and energy dependent eastern countries.Finally,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations are as follows:first,it is necessary for the international community to develop a differentiated and focused assistance program while countries developed emission reduction policies according to their own situation.Second,technology innovation power should give technical demander to the concession in matters related to the handling of intellectual property rights of technology transfer on climate change.Meanwhile,technology transfer should take into account the regional synergies and geographical proximity of the diffusion effect.Third,China should play the role of South South Cooperation Assistance Fund,strengthen the help of common technologies in specific regions,establish a joint research and demonstration mechanism with appropriate national on key technologies,and establish the image of great powers.Fourth,China should speed up the strategic layout along the route,develop differentiated industry and technology transfer policies based on the status quo of climate change in different regions and their technical capacity,and strengthen technical cooperation and trade with countries along the route to form a complementary industrial chain.