“十二五”期间中国区域低碳经济与国土空间开发格局的协调发展研究

Status of coordinated development between regional low-carbon economy and spatial land-use pattern in the 12^(th) Five Year Plan

有别于单纯的"区域竞争"模式,国土空间开发格局逐渐成为新形势下我国区域发展的基础和前提,区域开发应满足前者的基本要求。本文根据各省基于县级单元的主体功能区划,以2010年为基年,通过建立人口、经济、产业结构和温室气体排放等多层次指标体系,评价"十二五"时期我国区域低碳经济与国土空间开发格局协调发展的进展程度。研究发现,城市化地区(重点开发区和优化开发区)以占不到18%的国土面积,集聚了1/2以上的人口和3/4的经济产出;农产品主产区的面积占比超过1/4,人口比例接近1/3;重点生态功能区面积比例接近56%,人口比例低于10%。2010—2014年,从全国范围看,各类主体功能区的发展态势与其功能定位基本吻合,表现为优化开发区、农产品主产区和重点生态功能区的人口和经济集聚度均有微降,而重点开发区有所上升;各区产业结构均有所优化,但农产品主产区和重点生态功能区产业结构调整的幅度小于城市化地区。具体到各省,研究发现本文所研究的"协调性"进展与传统意义上的东、中、西区域划分和发展水平并无直接关系,例如同为东部地区的京津冀三地,协调性进展有显著差异,也显示出三地协同发展的难度。相反,一些惯常认为发展较为落后的省区,例如河北、青海、山西等地,在经济发展与国土空间开发格局的协调性方面所付出的努力和成效走在前列。部分地区低碳发展与其国土空间开发格局呈现出相对不协调的态势,主要表现为农产品主产区和重点生态保护区都出现了经济集聚度上升、产业结构劣化、CO_2排放大幅度上升、排放强度甚至也上升的趋势。

In order to avoid the disadvantages of traditional regional competition mode,spatial land use pattern has become the base and premise of regional low carbon development,which means regional development shall meet the requirements of land use pattern.Based on the provincial Major Function oriented Zone(MFZ)Planning developed from county level and taken2010as the basis year,the paper analyzed the status of coordinated development between regional low carbon development and spatial land use pattern in12th Five Year Plan,by developing a multi hierarchy approach to test the coordination,including the index for population,economy and industrial structure and greenhouse gas emissions.The initial results identified,urbanization zones(UZs),namely key zones for development(KZD)and Optimized Development Zone(OPZ),accounted for less than18%national lands,whereas concentrating over half population and3/4economic output;agricultural zones(AZs)accounted for over25%of national lands with nearly1/3population of national total;the share of key ecological zones(KEZs)in national lands was nearly56%,whereas the ratio of population was less than10%.During the period of2010-2014,from the national perspective,all MFZs,in general,developed in accordance with their major function orientation,indicating by the slight growth of population and economy concentration in UZs,and the drop of population and economy agglomeration degree in development limited zones(DLZs,including AZs and KEZs).However,the optimization of economic structure in DLZs was slower than that in UZs.From the perspective of environmental protection,this trend in KEZs was not always optimistic.From the provincial perspective,the coordination degree expressed in this article varied,where the common differences among east,middle and west regions were not significant in this case.Taking the region of‘Beijing Tianjin Hebei’as an example,the significant variation of coordination degree showed the challenges facing by the coordinated development in this region.Some regions that were supposed to be less developed,for instances,Hebei,Qinghai and Shanxi,got higher scores in this process to evaluate the coordination progress between regional low carbon development and spatial land use pattern.Some regions,however,were identified for their less coordination status,showing by the growth of population and economy agglomeration degree,degradation of economic structure,noticeable increasing of CO2,and even growth of CO2emission per GDP,in DLZs.