中国高速铁路运营的减碳及经济环境互馈影响研究

Carbon reduction effects and interaction of economy and environment of high-speed railway transportation in China

二氧化碳等温室气体排放备受世界关注,新形势下低碳发展成为中国发展路径的新选择,而高速铁路是长距离运输低碳化的具体体现。基于运营阶段的行车碳排放换算,综合考虑多种交通工具的实际运载能力、标准运行速度等指标,分析中国高速铁路行车运营的减碳效果及经济环境互馈影响。研究发现:(1)以单位运输能耗量及该能源的碳排放系数计算,中国高速铁路行车与其余交通运输方式相比具有显著减碳效果,其百公里人均碳排放量约为航空运输的1/5和高速公路运输的1/3,且随着中国能源结构的逐步优化,减碳效果将会愈发凸显。(2)结合中国旅客周转量比例进行折算,自2008年至2015年高速铁路运输累计减碳2 610万t,从空间上看,省域差距明显,高速铁路运输繁忙的京沪线及京广线沿线地区,成为2015年高速铁路行车运营减碳效果的高值区,亦由此呈现出带状聚邻的正空间自相关性。(3)高速铁路运营产生经济环境的良性互馈影响,一方面环境优化具有潜在经济效益,2008—2015年的减碳效果相当于降低碳交易成本逾10亿元,其绿色设计及应用也益于区域经济发展;另一方面高速铁路运营经济收益具有潜在环境补偿能力,2008—2015年累计对区域节能环保支出贡献逾30亿元,其中高值区以中国中部地区为主,空间分布呈斜T字型结构,其成因与地区节能环保支出占比、出行结构等因素相关。基于上述分析并结合中国发展的客观实际,提出合理增强高速铁路运输效能、继续优化能源供给结构等优化对策,以期从出行视角为中国低碳发展提供交通领域的理论支撑。

Under the new situation,low carbon has become the new choice of China,while the development of high speed railway transportation reflects this concept.Based on the conversion of traffic carbon emissions,considering the capacity,speed and other indicators,it analyzed the carbon reduction and interaction of economy and environment of China’s high speed railway transportation.The study found:①the effect of carbon reduction of China’s high speed railway operation was significantly,and its energy consumption of100km per capita was far below the air and road transport.With the gradual optimization of China’s energy structure,it will be further lowered.②According to total passenger turnover,its cumulative carbon reduction reached2610tons.From a spatial view,the provincial gap was obvious,and the line Beijing Shanghai,Beijing Guangzhou gathered high value areas and showed the positive spatial autocorrelation.③The high speed railway had the benign interaction of economy and environment.On the one hand,environmental optimization produced potential economic benefits.The carbon reduction effect from2008to2015was equivalent to an indirect cost reduction of1billion yuan,some green design and applications also benefited the regional economic development.On the other hand,its transportation revenue had potential environmental compensation capacity,and its cumulative contribution of potential environmental compensation capacity reached3billion yuan from2008to2015.Among them,the high value area was located in the central region of China and formed a‘T’structure,which was influenced by regional energy consumption,environmental protection expenditure and trip structure.Based on the reality of China’s development,this paper put forward countermeasures that enhance the role of high speed railway transportation,and optimize the energy supply structure,in order to provide theoretical support for the scientific development of China.