中国铀资源供给安全及影响因素分析

Analysis of the Supply Safety and Influence Factors of Chinese Uranium Resources

基于世界铀资源发展现状,结合中国核电中长期发展规划,设定高、中、低三种发展方案,预测到2030年中国国内生产、海外开发和国际贸易各自所需要的铀资源量不同的发展场景,对中国铀资源供给安全态势进行预测。在考虑铀资源与一般矿产资源的差异、国内铀资源市场和国际铀资源市场实际情况基础上,全面综合国内外学者对矿产资源获取安全影响因素的研究,结合中国铀资源安全的现状和特点以及发展态势,分析了国内资源禀赋、海外铀资源勘查、铀资源国际贸易、铀资源储备和政府政策响应等影响中国铀资源获取的主要因素。

Based on the current situation of the development of world uranium resources,combined with Chinese nuclear power for mediumand long-term development plan,this paper gave high,medium and low development plans,predicted the demand for Chinese domesticproduction,overseas development and international trade of uranium resources by2030,forecasted Chinese uranium resources supplysecurity situation.Considering the difference between uranium resources and general mineral resources and the current situation of domesticmarket and international market,synthesized the domestic and foreign research on the factors that affect the safety of mineral resources,combined with the status quo,characteristics and development trend of Chinese uranium resources safety,analyzed the domestic resourcesendowment,the overseas uranium resources exploration,the uranium resources international trade,the uranium reserves and the governmentpolicy response,etc.the mainly factors what affecting Chinese uranium resources access.