基于终端消费的云南省碳排放总量测算及驱动因素实证研究

Carbon emission calculation and driving factors based on terminal energy consumption:an empirical study from Yunnan Province

在终端能源消费CO_2排放总量测算中,二次能源(电力、热力)通常不被列入计算,这种测算结果无法准确测算出CO_2排放总量,更会影响减排相应措施的制定。根据生产和生活部门终端一次能源和二次能源消费量,构建了17种(含电力、热力)能源的碳排放总量测算模型,全面测算云南省2000—2014年CO_2排放量。选取LMDI 1分解法,将CO_2排放量分解为生产部门5类因素、生活部门6类因素。结果表明:(1)2000-2014年,云南省终端能源消费CO_2排放总量从5744.15万吨增长到18952.46万吨;其中,生产部门CO_2排放量约占总排放量91.2%,为碳排放主要来源。(2)能源强度是生产与生活部门最主要的驱动因素,其累计贡献度为–92.64%和–94.78%,其次为生产部门的产业结构效应以及生产与生活部门的能源结构效应,累计贡献度分别为–33.55%、–17.65%和–17.18%。(3)GDP和人均收入分别以累计贡献度245.28%和194.54%成为生产与生活部门最大的碳排放增长驱动因素。

Yunnan Province is the ecological protective screen in southwest China.The sum and variation tendency of CO2emission will influence the ecologic niche.Most research on the CO2emission is about terminal energy consumption that has not embody the secondary energy(electricity,heat).Based on the terminal energy and secondary energy consumption,the CO2emission calculation model has been established including17kinds energy used to calculate the CO2emission of Yunnan Province.The production division’s CO2emission driving factors have been decomposed to5factors with LMDI1model,and the living division’s have been breakdown into6ones.The results showed that the total energy consumption of CO2in Yunnan Province increased,ranging from5744.15×104ton to18952.46×104ton in2000to2014;among them,CO2emission from the production sector accounted for about91.2%of the total emission,which was the main source of carbon emission;energy intensity was the main drive factors of production and living department,the cumulative contribution of which was-92.64%and-94.78%respectively,and energy structure,industrial structure,energy structure of production and life sector were the second major factors,the cumulative contribution of which was-33.55%,-17.65%and-17.18%respectively;GDP and per capita income were the most significant driving factor of carbon emissions in the production and life sector,the cumulative contribution of which was245.28%and194.54%.