基于学习曲线的西北地区光伏发电成本分析

Analysis of COST of the Photovol Taic Industry in Northwest China based on Learning Curve

为了分析西北地区太阳能光伏发电的成本情况,本文主要基于学习曲线模型来分析西北地区现阶段的成本情况以及对未来十年的成本变化趋势,并进行了预测。研究结果表明,西北地区的光伏发电成本受到单位装机成本、运营费用比率、贷款状况、投资回收期和年满负荷发电小时数等因素的影响,通过构建学习效率曲线模型进行预测,预计西北地区2025年的光伏发电的成本电价可以降到0.4元/k Wh以内,低于同阶段的火力发电成本。最后,综合以上研究结果,本文从政府和光伏发电站两个角度,对西北地区光伏发电成本的降低提出了有针对性的对策和建议。

In order to analysis the solar photovoltaic power generation cost in northwest China,this paper analyzes the northwest region's current cost and the cost change trend of the next decade,which are the learning curve model.The result shows that the solar photovoltaic power generation cost in northwest China is influenced by the unit installed costs,operating expense ratio,loan conditions,investment recovery period and the number of hours at full load power.To analyze the photovoltaic power generation cost change in the next decade of northwest area by using the learning curve model,and the result shows that the photovoltaic power generation cost price can reduced to0.4yuan/kWh or less,which is lower than the same stage of thermal power generation cost.Finally,comprehensive the above research results,some suggestions are put forward according to the angles of government and photovoltaic power station,which will reduce the cost of photovoltaic industry in northwest area.