柑橘产量风险分区与保险费率厘定——基于湘南地区的案例分析

Risk zoning and premium rate of citrus yield insurance:Based on a case of southern Hunan province

遵循风险地域差异性及区内相似性原则,根据县(市)柑橘产量风险及保险历史数据,以行政区界相对完整为前提采用因子分析方法进行风险分区,然后运用正态分布、Gamma分布和Weibull分布参数模型拟合湘南地区20个县市的柑橘单产保险费率,并对其进行最终修正。研究表明:柑橘产量风险的县(市)差异明显,不适于采取统一保险费率政策;柑橘产量保险纯费率基本符合"高风险区域>较高风险区域>较低风险区域>低风险区域"风险排序,表明差别性费率能较好反映区域承灾风险,与保险责任匹配;实际保险费率不仅与风险相关,还涉及安全系数、营业费及预定节余率,对于费率估测值与风险等级明显不符地区应当执行必要的费率调整。

Following the principle of regional differences in risk and similarity within districts,according to county(city)historical data of citrus yield risk and insurance,based on the relative integrity of the administrative region,using factor analysis method,this paper first zoned the risk,then using normal distribution,Gamma distribution and Weibull distribution parameter model,this paper fit the citrus yield insurance premium rate in20counties of southern Hunan province,and at last the paper made final modification for the premium rate.The results show that:The premium pure rate of citrus area yield is basically in line with the risk ordering:the highest risk area>higher risk area>lower risk area>the lowest risk area,which indicates that the differential premium rate can properly reflect and match the regional risk and the insurance liability.The actual insurance rate is not only related to risks,but also relates to the safety factor,operating expenses and savings rates for the scheduled rate,it is necessary to adjust the rate at the area where estimated value and risk rank are obviously inconsistent.