基于信息扩散与适线法的区域农业旱灾风险评估

Assessment of Regional Agricultural Drought Disaster Risk Based on the Information Diffusion Theory and Curve-fitting Method

区域旱灾风险评估作为科学揭示旱灾风险系统演变机理的基础性工作,可为制定区域旱灾风险防控措施、实现旱灾风险管理提供合理有效的决策依据。为此,以安徽省蚌埠市一市三县1990-2007年农业因旱受灾率作为农业旱灾指标,针对区域历史灾情资料缺乏导致的样本数据信息不足的问题,采用模糊信息扩散理论开展蚌埠市农业旱灾风险评估,并结合水文频率适线法构建旱灾损失与风险之间的关系曲线,据此计算不同旱灾水平下的区域农业因旱受灾率。结果表明,基于信息扩散与适线法的旱灾风险评估模型可真实反映区域农业旱灾风险演变机制,计算结果对区域抗旱减灾工作具有一定的参考价值。

As a basic work for scientifically revealing the evolution mechanism of drought disaster risk system,regional drought disaster risk assessment can provide reasonable decisionmaking basis for developing drought disaster risk prevention and control measures and realizing drought disaster risk management.Therefore,the disaster rate of Bengbu city and three counties from1990to2007,was used as the agricultural drought index,aiming at the problem,that the sample data is insufficient by the lacking of regional history drought disaster,risk assessment of agricultural drought disaster in Bengbu city was carried out based on information diffusion theory,combining with curvefitting method of hydrological frequency,the curve of the loss and risk of drought disaster was constructed,hereby,the disaster rate of agriculture drought under drought disaster conditions can be calculated.The result showed that evolution mechanism of assessment for regional agricultural drought disaster could real reflect by assessment of agricultural drought disaster risk based on the information diffusion theory and curvefitting method,and it has a certain reference value for the work of drought resistance and disaster reduction in Bengbu city.