负指数网络配流模型在长三角集装箱运输分流预测中的应用

Application of negative exponent network flow assignment to forecast adjustment of the Yangtze River Delta container transportation

为更好地分析长三角区域内主要港口对腹地外贸集装箱箱源的竞争情况,对于港口腹地存在重合的情况,以负指数网络配流模型为基础,引入港口导向因数修正负指数网络配流模型,得出更适应长三角地区港口发展特征的集装箱配流模式,为长三角地区主要港口外贸集装箱吞吐量预测提供更加有效的方法。

In order to better analyzing emerging the Yangtze River Delta region’s main ports competition of foreign trade container source,under the condition of port hinterland partly overlapped,we establish a more adaptable exponent network flow assignment to find out the minimum freight according to the hinterland container transport network which is on the basis of the harbor oriented parameter.Based on this theoretical research,we obtain the container flow assignment model which is more suitable for the development of ports in the Yangtze River Delta region.We also provide a more effective forecasting method for the prediction of the foreign container throughput of major ports in this area.