基于管制指令的相似航班号风险评估

Risk Assessment of Similar Call Signs Based on ATC Clearance

通过对英国民航管理局收集到的相似航班号混淆事件报告进行分析,根据实际运行482条航班数据得到相似航班号混淆发生的一般规律,构建了相似航班号风险系数矩阵,进而对相似航班号风险进行分级;利用故障树分析法分析特定组成形式的相似航班号在运行中执行管制指令存在的风险及其所处风险等级,并结合实际案例进行分析,证明风险评估模型符合实际情况,为有效规避高风险相似航班号提供了理论依据。

Based on the analysis of the reports on similar call sign confusion incidents collected by British CAA,the paper acquired the rules with482actual operation data when similar call sign incidents may occur and established a matrix of similar call signs risk coefficients to rate the risks of similar call signs.Fault tree analysis was used to analyze the risks and risk level of aircraft with similar call signs in the implementation of ATC clearances.Practically applications indicate that the model is valid.The research was meant to provide a theoretical foundation to avoid similar call signs with high risks.