基于EKC曲线的浑太河流域水环境保护影响因素分析

Influence factor analysis of water environment protection of Huntai River basin based on EKC Curve

环境可持续发展是研究环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)学者探求的重要领域。本文基于两种不同的EKC假定,借助面板数据法研究了浑太河流域2003—2012年期间水环境保护与经济社会可持续发展间的协调对应关系,分析结果表明:1依据EKC关系曲线,水环境恶化与社会经济发展水平提升间存在倒U形关系;2依据修改EKC关系曲线,水环境保护的可持续性与社会经济发展水平(HD)间存在倒U形关系,受水资源消耗、区域贸易开放度、人均GDP水平、污染物排放总量控制等因素制约。依托最小二乘法(FMOLS)和动态最小二乘法(DOLS),EKC回归方程自变量Y(人均GDP)、Y^2、E(人均水资源消耗量)、T(区域贸易开放度)、MAN(生产附加值)和MHDI(修正的社会经济发展指数)的系数分别为1.988、-0.150、0.720、0.214、0.070和1.890。EKC假定、社会经济发展水平(HD)和可持续度是制定有效水环境保护策略的关键因素。

Sustainable development becomes an important research field for scholars studying Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC).Based on two different EKC assumptions,the coordinated relation between water environment protection and social-economic sustainable development in Huntai River watershed during the period of2003to2012was studied using panel data method.①Based on the EKC curve,there is an inverted U-shaped relation between water environment deterioration and improvement of socio-economic development level;②Based on the modified EKC(MEKC)relation curve,there is an inverted U-shaped relation between sustainability of water environment protection and socio-economic development(HD).It is restricted by water resource consumption,regional trade openness,GDP per capita and control regulations for total pollutant emission.Based on the fully modified ordinary least square(FMOLS)and dynamic ordinary least squares(DOLS),the mean values for key factors of EKC,Y(GDP per capita),Y2,E(water resource consumption per capita),T(regional trade openness),MAN(production added value)and MHDI(modified socio-economic development index)are2.090,-0.150,0.720,0.216,0.072and1.890,respectively.Therefore,EKC assumption,socio-economic development level(HD)and sustainability are key factors for the preparation of effective water environment protection strategies.