基于模糊聚类预报与序贯决策的水资源开发利用总量动态管理模式

Dynamical management for total amount control of water resources utilization based on fuzzy cluster analysis and sequential decision

针对水资源开发利用总量控制红线在不同来水频率年的适应性管理问题,在模糊聚类理论以及水文预报的基础上,结合不确定性动态系统优化决策方法,提出基于径流聚类预报与用水量复核双向约束的时程滚动修正的序贯决策方法。通过对建立月来水频率预报模型,结合实际用水量对逐月指标进行滚动修正,实现"预报-复核"双向约束下逐月用水总量控制指标的动态决策。通过在我国南方地区的应用表明,该方法可以实现逐月来水的预判并制定控制指标,实现逐月用水的弹性管理,具有很好的实用价值。

In order to improve the adaptive management for total amount control red line of water resources utilization in different water frequency year,this paper proposes a rolling modified Sequential Decision method which combines the clustering forecast of runoff with the water use constraint.The new method is based on the fuzzy clustering theory,hydrological forecasting and optimization in dynamic decision-making system.By establishing the month runoff frequency forecast model while at the same time considering the actual water consumption,it can make dynamic decision for monthly water quota under“forecast-review”bidirectional constraints.The result shows that the method can be used to make pre-judgment of monthly inflow,set the monthly water use quota,and realize the flexible management for monthly water use.