大坝工作性态监测评估的云模型及其应用

Dam safety evaluation based on normal cloud model

大坝工作性态评估是水库大坝安全管理急需解决的重大问题之一。基于云模型理论探讨了大坝工作性态评价的新模型,从变形性态、渗流性态及环境因素3个方面来构建指标体系,建立基于云模型和组合赋权法的大坝工作性态能力评估模型,该模型依据大坝工作性态评价因子分类标准,计算各评价因子隶属于不同大坝工作性态等级的云数字特征,并结合评价因子权重和正向正态云发生器,得到待评样本的综合确定度,以确定大坝安全级别。实例应用结果及与其它评价方法对比结果表明,该模型应用于大坝工作性态分类是有效可行的,且具有计算过程简便,结果可靠的优点,也为其他类似问题分析提供了参考。

To evaluate dam safety monitoring system accurately and reasonably,a model based on combination weight method and normal cloud model has been established to evaluate risk degree of dam.Three assessment indexes were considered,namely,deformation risk,seepage risk,and environmental risk in the process of safety evaluation of dam.Parameters of the cloud model and safety evaluation of dam risk grade were calculated with the chosen assessment indicators,membership matrix of assessment indicators was generated by normal cloud model generator based on dam monitoring data,and the combination weight method was used to compute the assessment indicator’s comprehensive weights.Finally,the membership of dam under each safety evaluation grade was computed by weight matrix and membership matrix of assessment indicators.The result indicates that this method can reach a better evaluation conclusion.