光伏出力的模糊区间预测

Fuzzy interval prediction of photovoltaic output power

针对光伏输出功率的点预测精度不足、传统支持向量机(SVM)在参数优化方面存在的固有缺陷等问题,根据模糊信息粒化理论和纵横交叉算法,提出一种基于CSO-SVM和模糊信息粒化理论的光伏出力模糊区间预测方案。结果表明:该方案可以得到较好的点预测值及其置信区间,某种程度上解决了传统点预测结果的信息局限性。

Aiming at the problems that the point prediction accuracy of photovoltaic output power is insufficient and the inherent defects of traditional support vector machine(SVM)in terms of parameter optimization,puts forward a scheme of fuzzy interval prediction of photovoltaic output based on crisscross optimization algorithm(CSO)-SVM and fuzzy information granulation theory.The results show that the proposed scheme can obtain better prediction value and its confidence interval,and in a certain degree reduce the information limitation of the traditional point prediction.