湖北电网负荷-气温敏感性分析与降温负荷估算研究

Studies on the Sensitivity of Power Load to Temperature and the Estimation of Temperature-lowering Load of Hubei Power Grid

基于湖北电网2016年夏季负荷与气温数据，绘制负荷与最高气温、最低气温的关系曲线，分析负荷增长与气温变化的规律。提出湖北电网基础日负荷曲线估算方法，并应用基准负荷比较法，计算得到2016年夏季大负荷典型日降温负荷曲线。基于日降温负荷曲线，分析了日降温负荷发展规律，估算得到降温负荷占全省负荷的比例。

On the basis of summer load data and temperature data of Hubei power grid in2016,the power-load-to-highest/lowest-temperature curves are plotted,so as to analyze rules of the increasing load varies with the changing temperature.A method for estimating basic-daily-load curves of Hubei power grid is proposed.Also,by applying the comparative method of criterionload,a temperature-lowering load curve on a typical summer-heavy-load day in2016is worked out.On the basis of daily temperature-lowering load curves,the variation rules of daily temperature-lowering load are analyzed and the proportion of temperature-lowering load to total load of Hubei province is estimated.