摘要
为准确把握苏州市轨道交通站点客流的离散特性,利用SARIMA模型和GARCH模型,对苏州市轨道交通车站的客流进行离散特性建模,并使用宽度流量比指标对6座典型车站的客流离散特性进行了分析和评价,为城市轨道交通车站客流特性的预测方法及车站设计和客流的疏导与管理提供了参考,具有一定借鉴意义。
In order to have an accurate knowledge of the discrete characteristics of passenger flow in Suzhou urban rail transit station,using the SARIMA model and GARCH model,this paper sets up a discrete model of Suzhou rail transit station passenger flow.It makes an analysis and evaluation of passenger flow discrete characteristics at6typical stations by using the width flow ratio index,provides references with some significance for passenger traffic forecast method of urban rail transit with the station passenger flow characteristics,station design and passenger flow diversion and management.
出处
《现代城市轨道交通》
2017年第12期60-62,66,共4页
Modern Urban Transit
基金
苏州市轨道交通集团有限公司科研项目(SZZG06YJ1050008)
