人力资本、溢出效应与资本回报率——基于中国省际面板数据的分析

Human Capital,Spillover Effect and Capital Return:Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data of China

本文通过构建理论模型分析了人力资本及其溢出效应、普通劳动力对资本回报率的作用机理,并使用1992~2012年省级层面数据进行了实证检验,主要的结论有:我国人力资本呈现出"东部集聚、中西部分散"的特征;人力资本是中国资本回报率提升的重要推动力,且从长期来看,该动力也十分显著;人力资本的"数量增长型"特征和自由流动受阻暂时缓解了溢出效应的不利影响,但长期的负向影响却较为明显;要素投入规模扩张已对东部的资本回报率产生了负向影响,即使在中西部也无法体现出积极作用,资本回报率的提升正在向"质量驱动"转变。

This paper analyzes the effect mechanism of human capital,its spillover effect and unskilled worker on capital return by constructing a theoretical model,and makes an empirical test using provincial data from1992to2012,the main conclusions are:The human capital of China presents the characteristic of“the eastern are gathering,the middle and west are scattering”;human capital is an important driving force for the capital return,which is also very significant in the long run;the characteristics of“quantity growth type”and mobility restrictions on labor flows temporarily alleviate the adverse effects of spillover effect,but negative influence of spillover effect is obvious in the long-term;the expansion of factor in?puts had a negative impact on capital return in the eastern part and no positive effect significant even in the middle and west,the increase of capital return is moving towards“quality driven”.