“全面两孩”政策下东部高校大学生生育意愿及影响因素分析

An Analysis of Eastern College Students' Fertility Desire and its Influencing Factors under the Universal Two-child Policy

高校大学生是一个特殊的青年引领群体,其生育意愿和未来的生育行为将影响我国未来的人口结构和人口发展,研究"全面两孩"政策下的高校大学生的生育意愿对预判我国未来的人口发展具有重要意义。本文收集了2542份东部高校大学生生育意愿调查问卷,内容包括基本人口学特征、意愿生育数、生育性别偏好、影响因素等选项,采用列联分析、二元Logistic逐步回归分析法对其生育意愿以及影响因素进行了研讨。分析发现:样本学生的平均意愿生育子女数仅为1.65个,与党中央提倡的"一对夫妇生育两个孩子"的目标存在明显的差距;62.68%的学生意愿生育1男1女;"两孩"的生育意愿受经济状况、观念因素、生活质量的影响较大。建议在"全面两孩"的政策背景下,在工薪群体尽快实行奖育金制度,充分发挥政策执行优势,辅以生育文化构建,将对促进全面两孩政策的落实具有重要意义。

College student is a special group to lead the youth,their fertility desire and fertility behavior in the future Will af?fect China’s population structure and population development.We do research on college students'fertility desire under the Universal Two-child Policy which will have important significance for predicting China's population development in the fu?ture.This paper collected2542survey questionnaire of eastern college students’fertility desire,which including basic de?mographic characteristics,desired fertility number,sex preference and the influence factors.We use contingency analysis,binary Logistic stepwise regression analysis on the research of fertility desire and influencing factors.The analysis found that the average willingness to have children is only1.65in the sample,so there is a clear gap between the CPC Central Committee to promote the“one couple have two children”;62.68%of the students would like to have one girl and one boy.Fertility desire of two children is more influenced by economic situation,concept factors,life quality.It is recommended that under the background of the universal two-child policy,bonus system should be implemented in working group as soon as possible.We should also give full play to the policy implementation advantage,supplemented by family cultural construc?tion,which has important significance to promote implementation of the two-child policy.