旅游发展效率与旅游发展强度的时空耦合演变研究——以长江经济带为例

Spatio-temporal Coupling Evolution of Regional Tourism Development Efficiency and Tourism Development Intensity—— A case study of Yangtze River Economic Belt

运用DEA模型、熵权法与综合评价法的结合、耦合模型分析了2002-2015年长江经济带11省市旅游效率、旅游强度及耦合指数.结果表明:(1)2002-2015年,长江经济带11省市的纯技术效率、规模效率和综合效率逐渐趋向有效,旅游综合效率的极化效应愈加明显.(2)2002-2015年,长江经济带旅游强度的主体演化类型为先降后升型,旅游强度由区域非均衡阶段逐渐转向相对均衡阶段,但省市间旅游强度的差距仍然存在.(3)2010年之后,长江经济带整体上旅游综合效率与旅游强度开始步入良性协调轨道,高度、较高度耦合型省市的空间分布经历了"均衡—相对集中—分散"的演变过程,中度、低度耦合型省市在方向上历经了自西向东的梯度扩散过程,在空间分布上经历了"集中—分散—均衡"的演变态势.高度耦合型省市具有较好空间集中性和年际变化稳定性,较高耦合型省市表现出对高度耦合型省市的依附性.

This paper used the DEA model,the combination of entropy method and comprehensive evaluation index,coupling model,multiple regression model to analyze the tourism efficiency,tourism intensity and coupling index between efficiency and intensity in the11provinces and cities of Yangtze River from2002to2015,and discussed the drive mechanism of tourism efficiency and tourism intensity.The rusults show that:(1)During2002to2015,the pure technical efficiency,scale efficiency and comprehensive efficiency of the11provinces and cities along the Yangtze River economic belt are gradually becoming effective,and the polarization effect of tourism comprehensive efficiency becomes more and moreobvious.(2)During2002to2015,the main evolution type of tourism intensity in the Yangtze River economicbeltis"drop first and rise later",and tourism intensity gradually shifts from regional non-equilibriumstagetoregionalequilibriumstage,however,thegapbetweenprovincesandcitiesstillexists.(3)After2010,on the whole,the comprehensive efficiency and tourism intensity of the Yangtze River Economic Belt begin to enter the track of sound coordinated development,and the spatial distribution of highly orrelatively highly coupled provinces and cities has experienced the evolution process of"balance-relative concentration-decentralization".Moderate and low coupling type provinces and citieshas experienced the evolution process of"centralized-decentralized-equilibrium".The provinces with highcoupling type have better spatial concentration and stability of interannual variation,and the higher coupling provinces and cities show the dependence on highly coupled provinces and cities.