重庆市税收收入与经济增长的相关性研究

Correlational Research between Tax Revenue and Economic Growth in Chongqing

近年来,重庆的经济得到了快速的增长,进而带动了税收收入的大幅度增长,甚至出现了多年税收收入超GDP增长的现象。根据经济增长和税收收入的相关理论,从支出法的角度,对重庆市税收收入和经济增长中各指标间的关系进行了较为详细的分析,发现居民消费、政府购买、投资对税收收入增长的促进作用依次减弱;并运用误差修正模型分析了重庆市税收收入和地区生产总值之间的长期均衡和短期均衡关系,发现GDP对税收收入的长期弹性大于短期弹性,说明刺激重庆市的地区生产总值增长,会自然地带动税收收入的增长。

In recent years,Chongqing's economy has been growing rapidly,then led to a substantial increase in tax revenue,the growth rate of tax revenue has outnumbered GDP’s in many years This paper is based on the theory of economic growth and tax revenue,from the point of view of expenditure method,making a detailed analysis on the relationship between tax revenue and economic growth in Chongqing,found that the promoting effects of household consumption,government purchase and investment on tax revenue decreased in turn The ECM model is used to analyze the long term equilibrium and short term equilibrium relationship between the tax revenue and GDP in Chongqing,found that the long term elasticity of GDP to tax revenue is greater than short term elasticity,indicating that stimulating GDP growth in Chongqing will naturally lead to an increase in tax revenues