基于技术水平视角的广西出口结构和产业结构变化研究

Trend of export structure and industrial structure in Guangxi——Based on technological level

文章构建时间序列模型对广西的出口结构和产业结构的发展趋势以及相互关系进行研究。研究发现,广西技术密集型产品的出口额占比与技术密集型产业占生产总值比重都持续增长,但技术密集型产品的出口额占比的变化落后于产业结构的变化,即产业结构的优化并未有效促进对外贸易结构的升级。Johansen检验结果表明,广西技术密集型产业与出口结构之间存在稳定的均衡关系。Granger因果检验显示,滞后2期和3期时,出口商品结构是产业结构的Granger原因。文章在讨论造成偏差原因的基础上,从产业发展和对外贸易两方面分别提出对策建议。

Using time series models,this article studies the trend and correlation between the export trade structure and industrial structure.It is found that both the export proportion of technology intensive products and output proportion of technology intensive products increased over the past15years,but changes of the output proportion of technology intensive products was significantly larger.Johansen test reveals that there is equilibrium relationship between the two.Reasons are analysed and advice on how to optimise the industrial structure is given.