环境气象业务数值模式预报效果对比检验

Comparative verification and analysis of environmental meteorology operational numerical prediction models in China

基于华北区域气象中心、华东区域气象中心、华南区域气象中心和国家气象中心环境气象业务数值模式2015年1—3月的预报结果,从能见度和空气质量两个方面对环境气象业务数值模式的预报效果进行了对比检验。结果表明:随着能见度降低,各数值模式的预报能力均逐渐下降,对于<1 km的能见度,仅华北区域模式和国家级雾霾数值预报业务系统(CMA Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment,CUACE)模式表现出一定的预报技巧,其中华北区域模式和CUACE模式对北京本地24 h能见度预报的TS评分分别为0.20、0.10;CUACE模式总体能见度预报误差较各区域数值模式均偏大;CUACE模式和华北区域模式、华东区域模式、华南区域模式能见度预报值与观测值的相关系数普遍低于0.6。随着空气质量下降,各数值模式AQI的预报能力均逐渐下降;AQI为优等级时,各数值模式AQI预报的TS评分均较高,其中空气质量较好的华南地区空气质量等级预报的TS评分最高,为0.81;总体上24 h的AQI预报,区域模式优于CUACE模式;48 h和72 h的AQI预报,CUACE模式优于各区域模式。各数值模式PM_(2.5)浓度的预报值普遍较观测值偏低,华南区域模式24 h的PM_(2.5)浓度预报误差相对较小,华北区域模式和华东区域模式24 h的PM_(2.5)浓度预报误差相对较大;CUACE模式PM_(2.5)浓度的预报误差较各区域模式均偏大,CUACE模式PM_(2.5)浓度预报值与观测值的相关系数较各区域模式均偏低。

Based on the visibility and air quality results from January to March in2015forecasted by four environmental meteorology operational numerical models from the North China,East China and South China Regional Meteorological Centers and the National Meteorological Center,respectively,their forecasting quality was verified.The results show that with the decrease of visibility,these models′forecasting quality gradually reduces.When the visibility is less than1km,only models from the North China Regional Meteorological Center and the national fog and haze numerical forecasting operational system CUACE(CMA Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment)exhibit a certain forecasting skill;the TS to24h visibility prediction in Beijing are020and010,respectively.Generally speaking,the visibility prediction error of the CUACE model is larger than those of regional meteorological centers′models,and the correlation coefficient of observations with the predictions is less than0.6.Similarly,with the decrease of air quality,these models′prediction quality to AQI(Air Quality Index)gradually reduces.When the AQI is at the excellent rank,the TS are higher;and due to the good air condition in South China,its TS score for AQI prediction is the highest.In general,for the24h AQI prediction,the forecasting qualities of the regional centers′models are superior to that of the CUACE model,and for the48h and72h ones,the situation is opposite.The values of PM2.5concentration forecasted by these models are normally lower than those of observations.The error of24h PM2.5concentration forecasted by the South China Regional Meteorological Center′s model is relatively small,and those forecasted by the North China and East China Regional Meteorological Center′s models are comparatively larger.For the prediction of PM2.5concentration,the performance of the CUACE model is the worst among these models,with a lower correlation coefficient between the predictions and observations.