基于未确知测度理论的核电项目建造过程风险评价

The Risk Assessment of a Nuclear Power Project Construction Process Based on Uncertainty Measurement Theory

为了提高核电项目建造过程风险评价的准确度,针对其风险评价过程中存在的诸多不确定性因素,应用未确知测度理论,建立核电项目建造过程风险评价模型。选用项目施工因素、进度因素、费用控制因素和环境因素等4个因素作为一级指标,项目质量等13个因素作为二级指标,构建评判要素的未确知测度函数;同时采用信息熵理论确定评价要素权重,最后依据置信度识别准则对核电项目建造过程风险等级进行判定。研究结果表明:该核电项目建造过程风险性等级为一般级别风险,与实际情况吻合。该方法可为科学评价核电项目建造过程风险提供一种新思路,为类似项目的风险评估提供参考和借鉴。

In order to improve the accuracy of the nuclear power project construction process risk analysis,and in view of the uncertainty factors in the process of risk analysis,a nuclear power project construction process risk analysis model was set up with applying of the uncertainty measurement theory.Four factors,such as project construction factor,schedule factor,cost control factor and environment factor,are selected as the first level indicators,and the13factors such as project quality are taken as the second level indicators to construct the unascertained measurement function of the evaluation factors.The weight of evaluation factors were determined by the information entropy theory and the nuclear power project construction process risk level was finally determined on the basis of confidence level recognition criteria.The research results show that nuclear power project construction processs risk level is the general level risk,and it coincides with the actual situation.This method can provide a new idea for the scientific evaluation of the risk of the nuclear power project construction process,and provide reference for the risk assessment of similar projects.