基于变异系数-综合指数法的乌鲁木齐城市脆弱性评价

Evaluation of Urban Vulnerability of Urumqi Based on the Variation Coefficient-Comprehensive Index Method

从生态环境、经济和社会脆弱性三个方面,筛选新疆乌鲁木齐城市2006—2015年近十年的34个具体评价指标建立了城市脆弱性评价指标体系,通过对指标数据进行标准化处理后,以变异系数法确定各指标的权重,并运用综合指数法对乌鲁木齐城市脆弱性进行了综合评价。结果表明:伴随着经济的快速发展,乌鲁木齐城市综合脆弱性逐渐降低,但长时间处于中等偏高状态;虽然经济、社会和生态环境的综合脆弱性指数都呈下降趋势,但生态环境与经济和社会发展不协调,以牺牲环境为代价从而获得经济发展的粗放型经济发展模式仍然存在。据此有针对性地提出了有利于乌鲁木齐城市未来发展的经济、社会与生态环境相协调的经济增长模式。

This paper selectes34specific evaluation indexes of Urumqi city in Xinjiang from2006-2015from environmental,economic and social vulnerabiltiy aspects,establishes an evaluation index system,and standardizes the index data,applies the coefficient of variation to determining the weight of the indicators,and then uses the comprehensive index method to evaluate the city's vulnerability.The results show that with the rapid economic development,the urban comprehensive vulnerability of Urumqi has gradually decreased,but it has been in a middle high state for a long time;although the comprehensive economic,social and ecological vulnerability index has shown a downward trend,the ecological environment,economic and social development is not coordinated.The extensive economic development model still exists,which is based on expense of the environment in order to obtain economic development.At the end the paper puts forward the economic growth mode which is conducive to the coordinated development of economic,social and ecological environment in Urumqi.