基于三角模糊数的加氢裂化装置火灾爆炸事故树的分析与应用

Analysis and Application of Fire and Explosion Fault Tree in Hydrocracking Unit Based on Triangular Fuzzy Number

针对事故树分析法(FTA)对石化装置安全评价中存在的基本事件概率模糊、不确定等问题,引入三角模糊数理论建立了模糊事故树的定量分析模型。利用该模型对石化加氢裂化装置进行故障分析,可得到加氢裂化装置发生火灾爆炸事故的概率分布以及概率的波动范围,利用模糊数中值法可求出各基本事件的模糊重要度并进行排序,进而得到各因素对顶事件发生火灾爆炸事故的影响程度,找出引起事故的主要因素,从而制定出能从根本上预防、从关键点控制顶事件发生的有效措施,这对于预防石化企业安全事故并进行有效的安全管理具有重要的意义。

In order to solve the problem of fuzzy probability and uncertainty of basic event probability in the evaluation of Petrochemical device by accident tree analysis(FTA),this paper introduces the triangular fuzzy number theory to establish a quantitative analysis model of fuzzy fault tree.The paper applies the model to analyzing the hydrocracking unit,obtains the probability distribution of the fire and explosion accidents,and points out the range of probability fluctuations.Then the paper applies the fuzzy number median method to obtaining the fuzzy importance degree of each basic event,getting the events order,and obtaining the influence degree of each factor on the fire event of the top event.The paper also identifies the main causes of the accident and works out effective measures to fundamentally prevent the occurrence of top incidents from the critical point.It is important for the prevention of saftey accidents in petrochemical enterprises and for effective saftey management.