摘要
针对传统多阶段马尔可夫模型CMM(conventional multi-phase Markov)在建模过程中存在分析过程复杂、维数爆炸等问题,提出一种多阶段马尔可夫模型简化算法SMM(simplified muti-phase Markov)。对该方法与CMM方法、IEC61508解析式方法中的计算负荷与精度进行数值分析。结果表明:采用SMM方法的计算结果与CMM方法的基本一致,在维持计算精度的同时避免了CMM方法中复杂的多阶段马尔可夫建模过程,极大地降低了计算量,使得安全仪表系统中失效概率计算更加快速且准确。
As the analysis process for the conventional multi-phase Markov(CMM)model is complicated and the dimension explosion may occur,a simplified multi-phase Markov(SMM)approach is proposed in the present study.The numerical a-nalysis is performed to analyze the computational efficiency and accuracy based on this new method,CMM method and IEC61508analytical formula.The results show that the calculation results by SMM are in good agreement with those of CMM,the former method maintains the calculation accuracy without complicated multi-phase Markov modeling procedure,making the failure probability calculation more quick and accurate.
作者
王海清
乔丹菊
刘祥妹
许小林
WANG Haiqing;QIAO Danju;LIU Xiangmei;XU Xiaolin(College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering in China University of Petroleum, Qingdao 266580, China;PetroChina Dushanzi Petrochemical Company, Dushanzi 833699, China)
出处
《中国石油大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第6期147-153,共7页
Journal of China University of Petroleum(Edition of Natural Science)
基金
山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR201702160283)
国家重大科技专项(D719-ZGSY-555)
关键词
多阶段马尔可夫模型
异型冗余设备
SMM方法
失效顺序
multi-phase Markov model
non-identical redundant components
SMM approach
failure sequence
