气候变化政策的协同效应的影响和不确定性分析

An Analysis of the Impact and Uncertainty of the Coordination Effects of Climate Change Policy

为了应对气候变化而进行的温室气体减排不仅会使其他大气污染物排放减少,还可能有各种间接的和温室气体排放相关的影响,最广为人知的是应对气候变化的政策可以带来空气质量的改善。这些有利的协同效应却没有在政策制定中纳入考虑,主要原因在于温室气体减排成本的不确定性和体制机制上的障碍。但是,在气候政策的设计和评估中全面考虑空气质量的协同效应几乎可以肯定,会增加社会产出,提高社会福利,因为这些协同效应很大,并且现有的政策分析并没有重视这些,未来纳入考虑对整体社会福利的改进具有重要意义。

Greenhouse gas emission reduction in response to climate change will not only reduce emissions of other air pollutants,but may have indirect impacts,which are related to greenhouse gas emissions.The most widely known policy for addressing climate change can lead to air quality improvement.These coordination effects are not taken into account in policy formulation,mainly due to the uncertainty in the cost of GHG abatement and the barriers to institutional mechanisms.However,the coordination effects of air quality in the design and evaluation of climate policy is almost certainly certain,which will increase social output and improve social welfare because these effects are significant.The existing policy analysis does not pay attention to these,and thus does not put the effects into consideration for the improvement of the overall social welfare.