一种提高早期页岩油气单井产量预测合理性的方法

A Method of Improving Reasonability on the Shale Oil and Gas Wells Production Prediction in the Early Stage

为了提高应用改进Arps递减模型在页岩油气开发早期单井产量预测中的合理性,本文在实际工作积累的基础上,提出流动阶段的识别可以通过可采量约束与改进Arps递减模型结合使用的预测方法,定性了解产量预测的合理性。该方法不同于前期作者提出的概率统计方法,而是较好地解决了由于改进Arps递减模型的局限性给页岩油气井早期产量预测带来的问题,增加了页岩油气井早期产量预测结果与实际的吻合程度,并在北美Wolfcamp、Barnett和Haynesville页岩油气区典型生产井的实际预测工作中取得了较好的应用效果,对页岩油气井早期产量预测具有一定的实用意义。

In order to improve the reasonability of single well production forecast by the modified Arps decline model in shale oil and gas development early stage,based on the practical work,this paper presented that flow period identification can understand the reasonability of production prediction and a recovery constraint method which can increase the match between early prediction results with the actual on shale oil and gas wells through combination of recovery constraints and the modified Arps decline model.Practical application good results have been achieved on typical production wells in North America Wolfcamp,Barnett and Haynesville shale plays.This method has practical significance on shale oil and gas well production forecasting early.