汽车与两轮车事故中驾驶员转向行为影响因素研究

A Study on Influencing Factors of Driver's Steering Behavior in Vehicle and Two-wheelers Accidents

为研究汽车与两轮车事故中驾驶员转向行为的影响因素,对172例汽车与两轮车真实案例进行统计分析,从中挑选出65例车辆具有驾驶转向行为的事故案例,并利用PC-CRASH对其进行事故再现仿真。运用Logistic回归模型对事故数据进行分析,得到驾驶员转向行为的显著性影响因素,最后利用拟合优度检验法和预测准确度检验法验证了模型的可靠性,置信度为95%时,模型的回判正确率为87.7%,具有良好的预测效果。结果表明:在车与两轮车事故中车流量、两者相对距离以及本车速度对驾驶员转向行为影响显著性较高,发生比依次为0.049、0.036、0.025,在车辆横向辅助驾驶系统开发及转向策略确定时应作为重点考虑因素,研究可为汽车自动驾驶、紧急转向系统等汽车主动安全技术的研发提供参考。

172traffic accidents of cars and two-wheelers are selected to analyze the factors affecting the driver′s steering behavior.Selecting65cases of accidents with driving steering behavior,PC-CRASH was used to simulate the experiment,extracting the collision parameters.The logistic regression model is used to analyze the accident data,and the influencing factors of the driver s steering behavior are obtained.Finally,the reliability of the model is verified by the goodness-of-fit test and the prediction accuracy test.When the confidence degree is95%,the correct rate of the model is87.7%,with good predictive effect.The results show that the traffic flow,the relative distance,speed have a significant effect on the driver′s steering behavior.The occurrence rate is0.049,0.036,0.025.The three points should be taken as a key consideration in steering strategy.This study can provide reference for the development of automobile active safety technology such as auto driving and emergency steering system.