我国农业全要素生产率增长与空间溢出效应——基于31个省市区2000—2014年数据的实证分析

Study on Agricultural Total Factor Productivity Growth and Spatial Spillover Effects——An Empirical Test Based on Annual Data of 31 Provinces and Municipalities during 2000-2014

不断提升农业全要素生产率是新时代农业现代化的必然要求。建立超越对数生产函数模型,测算我国31个省市区2000—2014年的农业全要素生产率(TFP),并采用动态SAR模型分析农业TFP的空间溢出效应,结果表明:我国农业TFP整体上不断增长,但近年来增速趋于下降;农业TFP存在显著的动态效应,表现出较强的发展惯性;农业TFP具有显著的正向空间溢出效应,相邻地区的农业TFP增长相互促进;劳动和资本投入不仅直接促进本地区的农业TFP增长,也间接促进邻近地区的农业TFP增长。为此,需要从加强农业投入、区域合作、政策支持等方面入手,充分利用农业TFP增长的空间溢出效应和动态效应,有效促进各地区农业TFP的持续快速增长。

Continuously promoting of agricultural total factor productivity(TFP)is inevitable requirement for agricultural modernization at new era.Based on stochastic frontier production function,this paper constructs a transcendental logarithmic production function model to measure agricultural TFP of31provinces and municipalitiesduring2000-2014,and uses dynamic SAR model to analyze spatial spillover effect of agricultural TFP.The results show that the overall agricultural TFP has a certain degree of growth,but the growth tends to decline in recent years,that the dynamic effect plays a significant role in agricultural TFP,showing a strong inertia of development,that agricultural TFP has significantly positive spatial spillover effect,that adjacent regions'agricultural TFP will promote each other,that the main input of agricultural production not only directly affects the agricultural TFP growth itself significantly,but also affects the neighborhood's indirectly.Therefore,some countermeasures are put forward,including strengthening agricultural input,regional cooperation,policy support etc.,to promote the sustained and rapid growth of agricultural TFP by sufficiently taking advantage of the spatial spillover effect and dynamic effect of agricultural TFP.