北美自贸区促进了成员国技术进步吗?——基于制造业相对技术水平演变的比较分析

Can North America Free Trade Area Promote Technical Progress for Its Member Countries?——Comparative Analysis of Relative Technical Level Evolution Based on Manufacturing Industry

以中国为标准国,利用EKS模型测算1995—2011年3个北美自由贸易区(NAFTA)成员国和具有代表性的35个非NAFTA国家14个制造行业的相对技术水平系数,并进行时间上的纵向动态分析和国家间的横向比较,得出以下结论:NAFTA的成立给各成员国的技术进步都带来好处,且经济互补性强的"南北"型自贸区比经济同构性强的"北北"型区域一体化组织(欧盟)更能使成员国获得技术福利;在NAFTA成员国中,美国制造业相对技术水平最高但各行业差异也最大,而墨西哥最低但行业差异不大;在变化趋势上,美、加、墨三国存在差异,说明NAFTA并不能使各成员国、各行业的技术水平都同比提高,而会产生区域内的分工和分化。因此,不能因某些部门的不景气而全盘否定自贸区或自贸协定,要通过双边和多边自贸协定或经济一体化协定打破日益严重的贸易保护主义壁垒;中国尤其应重视与经济互补性强、技术水平高的国家签订经济贸易一体化协定,积极提升国内技术水平和产品在国际价值链上的位置。

By taking China as a standard country,this article calculates the relative technical level coefficients of14manufacturing industries in1995-2011of NAFTA3countries and35non NAFTA countries by EKS model,empirically analyzes the changes and stages of the relative technological level of NAFTA countries by horizontally time analyzing and vertically inter-country comparison,and draws the following conclusions:Firstly,the establishment of NAFTA benefits all member countries in technical progress,and the relative technical level of member countries'manufacturing is higher than that of non NAFTA countries.This seems to indicate that the establishment of the stronger economic complementarity,inter industry division of the South-North free trade area,better than based on more isomorphism,intra industry division of labor"North-North"regional integration organization(EU)in the manufacturing sector relative to upgrade the technology level,the members can make a bigger profit.Secondly,in the NAFTA member countries,the United States manufacturing sector has the highest relative technical level,but the technical level difference is the largest among all departments.Canada is located in the second,and the level among the departments is different;Mexico is the lowest and the level is not very different.In the change trend,there are similarities and differences between the three countries in technological change,indicating that the establishment of the FTA does not indicate that the technique level of the manufacturing sector of member countries can increase,but produces the division of labor and differentiation in the area.Thus,the Free Trade Area or Free Trade Agreement should not be totally negated because of the downturn of a particular sector.Bilateral or multiple sides free trade agreement or economic integration agreement should be used to break the barrier of increasing trade protectionism,especially China should make economic and trade integration agreement with the countries with strong economic complementarity and high technical level and actively upgrade internal technical level and raise Chinese products position at international value chain.