房产投资在家庭资产配置中的挤出效应研究——基于Probit模型和Tobit模型的实证研究

Research on the Crowding-out Effect of Real Estate Investment on Family Financial Asset Allocation——Empirical research based on Probit model and Tobit model

以家庭微观金融为视角,使用2011年中国金融家庭调查(CHFS)数据,以我国家庭股票和债券等风险资产所占比重的现状与动态变化为基础,运用Probit模型和Tobit模型分别研究房产投资对股票市场和债券市场的参与及参与深度的影响。研究结果表明:从全国范围内看,房产投资会降低居民家庭参与股票市场和债券市场的可能性,并与股票市场和债券市场的参与深度呈现出反向关系,即房产投资对家庭金融资产的挤出效应强于资产配置效应。

From the perspective of family of microfinance,the use of China’s financial household survey in2011(CHFS)data,based on the present situation and the dynamic change of Chinese family risk assets such as stocks and bonds,the Probit model and Tobit model were used respectively to study real estate investment in the stock market and bond market and the influence of the depth of participation.The research results indicated that nationally the real estate investment will reduce the possibility of households to participate in the stock market and bond market,showing a reverse relationship with the participation of the stock market and bond market depth,namely the crowding-out effect of real estate investment of domestic financial assets is stronger than asset allocation effect.