基于气温影响的电动汽车充电需求预测

Electric vehicle charging demand forecasting based on influence of weather and temperature

电动汽车充电需求预测是电网建设规划和调度运行的基础,而气温通过改变电动汽车的交通路况、空调能耗和电池特性来影响负荷预测的准确性。文中利用蒙特卡洛法模拟电动汽车的出行特性,提出一种考虑气温影响的电动汽车充电负荷计算方法,使电动汽车充电需求预测更加精确。一方面,分析天气对出行路况的影响,制定合理的安全行驶速度,利用能耗因子模型获取单位里程耗电量,得到不同时速情况下电动汽车总耗电量的差别。另一方面,分析温度对电池特性和空调能耗的影响,计算电池实际最大载电量和空调耗电量。以上海市电动私家车为例仿真分析,证明在天气和温度影响下,电动汽车充电需求发生显著变化。

Electric vehicles(EVs)charging demand forecasting is the foundation of the construction planning and scheduling of power grid,and the weather and temperature affect the charging load by changing the traffic condition,air conditioning energy consumption and battery characteristics of EVs.Therefore,this paper uses the Monte Carlo method to simulate the travel characteristics of EVs,and puts forward a calculation method of EVs charging load considering the temperature factor,so that the EVs charging demand forecasting is more accurate.On the one hand,the influence of the weather on the traffic condition is analyzed,the reasonable safe driving speed is worked out,the energy consumption model is introduced to calculate the mileage power consumption,and the difference of total EVs consumption is found.On the other hand,the analysis of the effect of temperature on the battery characteristics and energy consumption of air conditioning,calculating the actual maximum load capacity and air conditioning power consumption.Taking Shanghai EVs as an example,it is shown that at the influence of weather and temperature,EVs charging demand will make a large change.