基于随机前沿分析的中国农业全要素生产率增长的实证分析

Empirical study on the productivity growth of agricultural total factor based on stochastic frontier analysis

基于1997—2014年的省际面板数据,建立超越对数随机前沿函数模型进行农业全要素生产率的实证分析,根据对农业全要素生产率的测算分解,得出如下结论:农业全要素生产率增长存在波动,其增长年均值为8.59%;技术进步变化率是其主要推动因素,而要素配置效率变化率和规模效率变化率对农业全要素生产率的贡献仍较小。此外,农业全要素生产率增长存在明显的地区差异,从变异系数来看,华南地区农业TFP增长率波动对全国农业TFP增长率影响较大;分区域来看,华东地区的农业全要素生产率增长受规模效率变化率波动影响最大,华南地区农业TFP受配置效率变化率波动影响最大,以上两方面构成农业全要素生产率增长地区差异的主要原因。最后,笔者根据研究结论提出相应的政策建议。

Based on the provincial panel data from1997to2014,the paper builds transcendental logarithmic stochastic frontier function model and make an empirical analysis of the agricultural total factor productivity.According to the calculation of the total factor productivity conclusions are drawn as follows:total factor productivity growth is in wave with annual increase of8.59%;the change rate of technological progress is the main driving factor,while the rate of change of factor allocation efficiency and scale efficiency are still small.Besides,it has obvious regional differences:the fluctuation of agricultural TFP in Southern China has a great impact on the growth rate of the national agriculture TFP;,the total factor productivity growth in East China is affected by the change of scale efficiency,while Southern China agricultural TFP is largely affected by the change rateof the configuration efficiency.Finally,the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward based on the conclusions of the study.