上海市气象局海洋气象数值预报技术研究进展

Progress of the Numerical Prediction of Marine Meteorology in SMB

为满足上海海洋区域中心海洋气象业务的需求,近十多年来中国气象局上海台风研究所和上海海洋气象预报台承担完成了多项国家、上海市和气象部门的海洋气象数值预报技术研究方面的科研课题,在海气相互作用物理过程观测研究方面揭示了台风和海雾边界层大气湍流能量输送一些新的事实,通过合理地表达海洋飞沫对于动量和热量输送作用和改进海面拖曳系数方案等手段,有效提高了海气耦合模式对于台风强度的模拟和预报能力。研发了全球和西北太平洋风浪数值预报系统,特别是发展了包括波流相互作用等复杂物理过程的近岸高分辨率海浪和风暴潮数值预报系统,还基于观测和数值模式波浪要素研发了浅滩效应指数、波浪陡度指数、涌浪占比指数和谐摇指数等船舶风险指数产品,使海洋气象预报服务更有针对性,并取得了很好的应用效果。

To meet the requirements of marine meteorological services in Shanghai Regional Marine Meteorological Center of CMA,a few of scientific research projects from national,Shanghai municipal government and CMA were undertaken by Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Shanghai Marine and Meteorological Center in recent10years.The observational research on physical process of airsea interaction reveals some new facts of turbulence energy transport in the atmospheric boundary layer in typhoon and sea fog.The simulation and prediction of typhoon intensity in the coupled ocean-atmosphere model is improved by reasonable expression of the effect of sea spray on momentum,heat transfer and drag coefficient on the sea surface.The operational wave model is established for global and northwest Pacific respectively.In particular,is developed wave and storm surge numerical prediction systems is developed with high resolution over coastal sea including complex physical processes,such as wave flow interaction.Based on the numerical model output,some useful ship risk indexes,such as the wave steepness index,swell ratio index and synchronism index,and so on,are set up and put into use by Shanghai Marine and Meteorological Center.So the marine weather forecasting services are more targeted in SMB recently.The numerical products are widely used in daily operational work and professional services.