航空公司飞行安全综合评估方法研究

Research on Comprehensive Evaluation Method of Airline Flight Safety

人的因素是影响飞行安全的关键因素,并且各决策因素具有难以度量的不确定性。以机组人为因素为主要研究对象,利用SHELL模型建立飞行安全评估指标体系,并利用AHP方法计算评估指标体系中各个指标的权重;运用物元理论建立评估模型并利用该模型进行飞行安全综合评估,找出影响飞行安全的主要指标;通过实例验证所用方法的可行性、有效性。结果表明:所用方法可行、有效,能够最大限度地解决评估过程中的不确定性,可为航空公司进行飞行安全管理提供一个可行的方法。

Human factors are the key factors which affect flight safety,and the factors of decision making possess are of the characteristic of uncertainty,and difficult to measure.The human factors of the aircrew are the main research object.The flight safety evaluation index system is established by the SHELL model,and the weights of the related index in the evaluation index system are calculated by AHP method.The evaluation model is established by the matter element theory,which is used to evaluate the flight safety and find out the main indexes that affect flight safety.The rationality and feasibility of this method are validated from the application.The results show that the method is feasible and effective,and can solve the uncertainty in the evaluation process to the maximum extent,which can provide a feasible method for airline flight safety management.