乡城流动人口生育男孩偏好及其影响因素分析——基于与农村本地人口的比较

Son preference of temporary rural-to-urban migrants and its' influencing factors:Based on the comparison with the rural natives

基于CFPS2010和2014年全国流动人口以及2012年上海市流动人口动态监测数据,并从与农村本地人口比较视角,从具体生育行为上实证分析乡城流动人口生育男孩偏好及其影响因素。结果表明:无论乡城流动人口还是农村本地人口仍具生育男孩偏好,但乡城流动人口偏好程度明显弱化;乡城流动人口无论各孩次生育均在流入地的,还是一孩或一孩二孩生育在流出地的,在没有男孩的情况下,二孩与三孩递进生育概率均小于农村本地人口。在社会融合五个维度中,经济融合维度尤其是其中社会养老保险制度将会明显弱化乡城流动人口生育男孩偏好。提高农民工参保率并积极开展社区文体活动对平衡出生婴儿性别结构很有帮助。

Based on the CFPS2010data,2014national circular migrants monitoring data and2012Shanghai circular migrants monitoring data,based on the comparison with the rural natives,the paper analyzed the impact of rural-to-urban migration on son preference.The paper found that both the temporary rural-to-urban migrants and the rural natives had son preferences,but the son preference of temporary rural-to-urban migrants was weakened.The multivariate regression showed that the progressive birth probability of temporary rural-to-urban migrants was lower than that of rural natives when they had no son,no matter the place where they gave birth to the first or second child was in urban or in rural.Among the five variables of social integration,the social endowment insurance system included in the econom icintegration weakened the son preference.Improving the rate of migrant workers'insured and carrying out community sports activities would be helpful to balance the birth sex structure.