人口老龄化、储蓄率与经济增长——基于中国数据的实证研究

Population Aging,Savings Rate and Economic Growth——An Empirical Study based on Chinese Data

人口结构转变会对经济领域产生影响.而在人口老龄化对经济增长影响是正是负,学界众说纷纭,观点不一.本文引入人口老龄化因素,利用1978—2015年的全国数据,通过构建向量误差修正模型进行实证分析.结果表明,储蓄率和人口老龄化的经济效应方向一致,在短期和长期经济增长分别发生负向和正向的变化.

Demographic transition will have an impact on the economic sector.However,the influence of population aging on economic growth is negative,and there are different opinions in academic circles.This paper introduces the population aging factors,using the national data from1978to2015,through the construction of vector error correction model for empirical analysis.The results show that the economic effects of savings rate and population aging are the same,and negative and positive changes in short-term and long-term economic growth,respectively.