基于区域历史回归法的辽宁地区一次人工增雨作业效果检验

Effective test of an artificial precipitation enhancement operation process in Liaoning province based on a regional historical regressive statistical method

利用区域历史回归统计分析方法,选取1961—1990年辽宁省国家级地面气象站的日降水量资料作为历史样本,以铁岭地区作为对比区对2016年8月31日阜新地区一次人工增雨作业过程进行效果检验。结果表明:结合探空、雷达、数值模式资料和作业参数分析可知,2016年8月31日阜新地区人工增雨作业过程符合人工增雨作业的合理性要求,绝对增雨量为20.06 mm,相对增雨率为119.43%,通过了0.01水平的显著性检验。与国内其他省份应用相同方法进行人工增雨效果检验的个例对比发现,统计变量的选取对人工增雨作业的效果检验较重要。

Using a regional historical regressive statistical method and based on daily precipitation data from national surface meteorological stations in Liaoning province from1961to1990,the effect of an artificial precipitation enhancement process in Fuxin on August31,2016,was validated using Tieling as a control area.The results showed that throughout the comprehensive analysis of the data from sounding,radar,and numerical model as well as operating parameters,this artificial precipitation enhancement process meets the requirement of rationality.The increase in absolute rainfall is2006mm,and the increase in relative rainfall rate is119.43%through the significance testing with the0.01significant test level.In comparison with previous studies using the same method in other provinces in China,we find that the choice of statistical variables has great effects on the validation results.