摘要
为解决国外水电EPC项目风险管控难度大的问题,提出了灰色-改进型AHP风险评价模型。首先,在确定风险评价指标体系各指标权重基础上,运用灰色系统理论确定各指标灰色评价矩阵;其次,应用模糊综合评价法对项目风险进行综合评价;最后,案例研究显示,灰色-改进型AHP风险评价模型可准确确定国外EPC项目风险等级,降低项目损失。
In order to solve the difficult problem of risk control of foreign hydropower EPC project,a gray-modified AHP risk assessment model is proposed.Firstly,based on the weight of each index of the risk evaluation index system,the gray system is used to determine the gray evaluation matrix.Secondly,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the project risk synthetically.Finally,combined with the case shows that the gray-improved AHP risk assessment model can accurately determine the risk level of foreign EPC projects,reduce the risk to the project caused by the loss.
作者
郭琦
黄佳祺
张扬
卢雅欢
Guo Qi;Huang Jiaqi;Zhang Yang;Lu Yahuan(College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, Hubei 443002, China;Cost Center, China Power Beijing Engineering Corporation Limited, Beijing 100024, China)
