基于最大熵模型的大连北站客运枢纽换乘客流预测

Maximum Entropy Model of Transfer Passenger Flow Forecasting based on Dalian North Railway Station Hub

从宏观上对客运枢纽换乘客流进行分析和预测.引入最大熵模型,以现有换乘客流矩阵作为基础,对模型参数标定并对问题进行了求解.根据历史数据计算,得出综合枢纽的换乘矩阵,与实际数据对比后发现误差较大,经过分析再次添加两个参数,并用实际数据进行标定,最后将模型运用到大连北站综合枢纽的实例中进行计算.

The passenger flow in passenger transport hub is analyzed and predicted from the macro view.The maximum entropy model is introduced to calibrate the model parameters and solve the problem based on the existing passenger flow matrix.Through the calculation,the prediction of the planning year integrated hub transfer matrix are solved.After comparing with the actual data,it is found that the error is large.Thus two parameters are add,and the model is calibrated again with the actual data.At last the model is applied to the example of Dalian North Railway Station.