CO_2-EOR地质封存工程经济评价与投资风险分析

Economic Evaluation and Investment Risk Analysis of CO_2-EOR Geological Sequestration Projects

从全生命周期角度构建了CO_2-EOR地质封存的工程经济模型,并以LostSoldier油田作为假定对象,对其进行CO_2-EOR封存的封存效果和收益进行了预测;在此基础上,重点考察了17个主要不确定因素对项目的影响,分析了CO_2-EOR封存项目的投资风险,进一步探讨了油价、CO_2购买(捕捉)成本、碳交易价格和监测井数量4个主要不确定因素对封存成本及投资风险的联合影响,描绘了项目投资边界。结果表明:(1)单个CO_2-EOR项目封存量偏低,无法满足大型CCS电厂的长期减排需求;(2)"油价"和"油藏深度"对项目收益影响最大,"单井产量上限"和"采注井比例"的影响最为复杂;(3)在当前油价偏低、CO_2捕捉成本偏高的情况下,CO_2-EOR投资风险较高,但监测成本下降空间较大,届时投资风险可进一步降低。

The engineering economic model of C02-EOR geologic sequestration was constructed from the perspective of full life cycle.Taking the Lost Soldier oilfield as an assumed object,the model was used to predict the effect and benefit of C02-EOR sequestration.Based on this,we examined the impact of17major uncertainties on the project,and analyzed the investment risk of the C02-EOR sequestration project.The joint impact of four major uncertainties on sequestration costs and investment risks were fiuther discussed,including oil price,C02purchase(capture)cost,carbon trading price and the number of monitoring wells.Meanwhile,the investment frontier was also described.The results show that:firstly,the sequestration capacity of a single C02-EOR project is too low to meet the long-term emission reduction requirements of large-scale CCS power plants;secondly,"oil price"and"reservoir depth"have the greatest impact on the project revenue,and the impacts of"the upper production limit of a single well"and"the ratio of injection wells"are the most complicated;thirdly,under the current situation of low oil price and high C02capture cost,the investment risk of C02-EOR is relatively high,but the potential of monitoring cost reduction is great,which make ifs possible to further reduce the investment risk.