“不确定”时代国际安全的“确定性”重塑

Reshaping “Certainty” of International Security in the Age of “Uncertainty”: A Strategic Agenda

国家始终面临着如何实现国际安全的难题,因而也向来偏好于获得地区与国际环境中的"确定性"。不过,这通常会面临地区与国际形势演进"常态性"及由此带来的"不确定性"的影响,而在"不确定"时代,这则会体现得更为明显。"不确定"时代的"不确定"实际上表现为全球治理的"失序",主要呈现在国际经济层面的保护主义、国际政治层面的保守主义、社会层面的民粹主义与国际安全制度性安排的"滞后"等诸方面。这些"不确定"因素深刻作用于国际安全的"确定性"本质,在影响国家实现国际安全的"自助性"和国家间安全关系的同时,更使国际体系的"确定性"难有保证。因此,重塑国际安全并不能囿于哪一个范式的解释,它是一项系统的、复杂的国际战略议程,在重塑国际安全进程中依赖于经济领域开放、互惠互利的地区与全球秩序的建立,依托于全球范围内"积极有为"国际安全理念的共享,依靠于国际安全治理制度的"与时俱进"。而在国际安全实践中,中国与东盟国家共同维护南海安全进程中所体现的安全实现路径则为在"不确定"时代重塑国际安全"确定性"提供了一个经验性验证。

States are always faced with the big challenge of how to achieve international security and thus prefer to acquire "certainty" in the regional and international environments. However, this desirability is subject to the constantly changing regional and international situations and the ensuing impact of "uncertainty", whichis more evident in the age of uncertainty. In fact, the "uncertainties" in the age of uncertainty are a manifestation of the disorder in global governance, specifically, protectionism in international economy, conservatism in international politics, populism in civil society and a lag in institutional arrangements associated with international security. These factors of "uncertainty" have exerted profound impacts on the "certainty" nature of international security. They have negatively affected states' efforts to seek "self-help" of international security and the inter-state security relations, making it more difficult to guarantee the "certainty" of the international system. Therefore, it is concluded in this paper that reshaping international security should not be confined to just one paradigm. It is more of a systematic and complicated international strategic agenda that relies on the establishment of a regional and global order featuring openness and mutual benefits in the economic sphere, on the sharing of the international security concept featuring "acting actively" and on the institutional upgrading of the international security governance. In the practices of international security, the path to security implementation embodied in the joint efforts made by China and ASEAN countries in the process of maintaining the security of South China Sea has provided an empirical verification for reshaping "certainty" of international security in the age of "uncertainty".