“一带一路”缓解东北亚安全困境:可行性及其路径

Mitigating Northeast Asia's Security Dilemma with the Belt and Road Initiative: the Feasibility and Pathway

在中国周边次区域中,东北亚地区安全困境最为严重,而该地区对于中国实现和平稳定与发展繁荣具有重大意义。具备区域合作重要属性的"一带一路"倡议能有效缓解安全困境。东北亚地区之所以成为"一带一路"倡议的缺口,主要由于朝鲜半岛紧张局势居高不下、美国因素的负面影响、中日竞争关系的存在,这些因素的根源又是该地区的"安全困境"。将东北亚地区逐步纳入"一带一路"能在一定程度上缓解该地区的安全困境,并为深化东北亚区域合作提供新的动力,两者有望形成良性循环。俄罗斯、蒙古国和韩国对中国的"一带一路"倡议态度积极,朝鲜也表现出一定的兴趣,日本和美国态度复杂,但已经很难置身度外。在推动东北亚地区纳入"一带一路"倡议时,需先从双边合作入手,争取各国均加入到"一带一路"倡议和亚洲基础设施投资银行;然后扩大到中日韩、中俄朝和中朝韩三边合作;进而扩大到多边范围,在亚洲基础设施投资银行下设立"东北亚建设资金",专注于东北亚项目投资;同时激活和利用大图们江开发计划和长吉图国家发展战略。

In China's periphery, Northeast Asia poses the most serious security challenge to China's stability and prosperity. The Belt and Road Initiative, featuring regional cooperation, can effectively mitigate China's security dilemma. The absence of Northeast Asia from the Belt and Road Initiative is mainly due to tensions on the Korean Peninsula, the negative role played by the US and the Sino-Japan rivalry, all of which can cause a security dilemma in this region. A gradual incorporation of Northeast Asia into the Belt and Road Initiative will, to some extent, ease the security competition in the region, which in turn can provide a new impetus for deepening regional cooperation and thus form a virtuous cycle. Up till now, Russia, Mongolia and South Korea have demonstrated positive gestures toward the Belt and Road Initiative and North Korea has shown some interest. On the contrary, Japan and the US hold complex feelings toward the Initiative. With the endeavor to promote the integration of Northeast Asia into the Initiative, China should start with bilateral ties, encouraging all the regional countries to join in the Initiative and the AIIB and then expand the bilateral ties to China-Japan-ROK, China-Russia-DPRK and China-DPRK-ROK trilateral cooperation. Finally, China can promote multilateral cooperation by setting up the Northeast Asia Construction Funds under the AIIB, serving specifically investment projects in this region. Meanwhile, China can activate and utilize the Great Tumen Initiative(GTI) and Changjitu National Development Strategy.