基于突变理论的区域洪灾脆弱性评价

Assessing regional flood vulnerability based on catastrophe theory

从洪灾脆弱性组成结构出发,选取11个指标构建洪灾脆弱性评价指标体系,建立了基于突变理论的区域洪灾脆弱性评价方法,并应用于全国重点地区防洪保护区——怀洪南片防洪保护区洪灾脆弱性评价中,结果表明:区内大部分地区的洪灾脆弱性程度偏高,其中特脆弱性等级的乡镇为头铺镇、沫河口镇、曹老集镇;重脆弱性等级的乡镇为大新镇、新集镇;中脆弱性等级的乡镇为新马桥镇、王庄镇、吴小街镇、曹顾张乡、浍南镇;轻脆弱性等级的乡镇为小蚌埠镇、梅桥镇、临北回族乡;微脆弱性等级的乡镇为怀远县城关镇、魏庄镇。并与基于熵权模糊优选法进行对比,二者评价结果基本一致,进一步表明了方法的合理性和有效性。研究成果对于降低防洪保护区内各乡镇的洪灾脆弱性具有指导作用,对防洪保护区的减灾投资及洪灾管理具有重要意义。

Based on the structure of the flood vulnerability,11indexes are chosen to establish the flood vulnerability evaluation index system.Then the regional flood vulnerability evaluation method based on catastrophe theory is established and applied to evaluate the flood vulnerability of the Huaihongnanpian(HHNP)flood protection area,which is a national key flood protection area.The results show that the flood vulnerability degree is high in most areas of the HHNP flood protection area.The townships with the first level of flood vulnerability are Toupu,Mohekou and Caolaoji,with the second level of flood vulnerability are Daxin and Xinji,with the third level of flood vulnerability are Xinmaqiao,Wangzhuang,Caoguzhangxiang,Wuxiaojie and Kuainan,with the fourth level of flood vulnerability are Xiaobengbu,Meiqiao and Linbeihuizu,with the last level of flood vulnerability are Huaiyuanxianchengguan and Weizhuang.And compared with the fuzzy optimization method based on entropy weight,the results of the two evaluations are basically the same,which further demonstrates the rationality and effectiveness of the method.The research results have a guiding role in reducing the flood vulnerability of each township in the flood protection area,which is of great significance to the flood disaster reduction investment and flood disaster management.