台海危机与风险管理:1987-2017为例

Taiwan Strait Crisis and Risk Management: A Case Study from 1987 to 2017

1987年,两岸长达38年的隔绝状态被打破后,人员往来和各项交流迅速开启。两岸由过去长期的对峙逐步迈向交流、对话与合作。三十年以来,两岸关系走过了一个高潮迭起的历程。尽管其间台海危机及两岸风险事件不断,但台海区域及两岸关系总体上维持了一个稳定的局面,有效地阻止了"台独"分裂势力企图把台湾从中国分离出去的野心。大陆对台海危机的管理基本上达到了预期的目标。随着中国大陆综合国力的快速提升,大陆在应对台海危机及其风险方面的管理能力不断提升,空间不断扩大。

Since the two sides of the Taiwan Strait started resuming civil exchanges in 1987, two sides of the Strait have been gradually moving from long-term isolation and confrontation toward exchange, dialogue and cooperation. Over the past three decades, cross-Strait relations have also gone through a process of climax. However, as the cross-Strait crisis continues and cross-Strait relations face many challenges, Chinese mainland eventually succeeded in stopping the ambitious attempt by Taiwan's secessionist forces to secede from Chinese territory. At the same time, with the rapid development of the overall national strength in Chinese mainland, its strategic space for coping with the crisis and risk management in the Taiwan Strait has also been expanding. Reviewing the crisis and risk management over the Taiwan Strait for the past three decades will help us to better control Taiwan Question in the future.