台湾选民的政党认同及其影响因素——基于2014年台湾“九合一”选举的分析

The Party Identification of Taiwan Voters and its Influencing Factors——Analysis Based on the “Nine in One” Election of Taiwan in 2014

在2014年台湾地区"九合一"选举中,民进党以压倒性优势获得了大多数县市的优胜,台湾地区势力版图由"蓝天绿地"变成了一大片"绿地"。本文试图以政党认同为切入点,采用台湾选举与民主化调查在"九合一"选举前的电访数据(TEDS2014-T),对台湾地区政党认同的现状进行简单统计描述,探讨政党认同与选举之间的关系。选取性别、年龄、受教育程度、职业、家庭省籍、"总统"满意度、身份认同和统"独"态度等变量,分别与政党认同进行交叉表统计分析,呈现各类别的政党认同情况。以政党认同为因变量,其他各变量为自变量,构建多项逻辑回归模型,分析台湾选民政党认同的影响因素,统计结果显示,性别、年龄、受教育程度、家庭省籍、"总统"满意度、身份认同和统"独"态度对政党认同具有显著影响;职业对政党认同不具有显著影响。

During the "Nine-In-One" election of Taiwan in 2014, the Democratic Progressive Party won overwhelmingly advantage in most provinces, and the territory of Taiwan changed its influence from "blue sky and green land" to a large area of "green land". This article begins with the idea of Party identification by using the election data and democratization survey(TEDS2014-T) before the "Nine-In-One" election. First of all, a brief statistical description of the status quo of Taiwan's party identification is conducted to explore the relationship between party identification and election. Secondly, the article provides gender, age, education level, occupation, family provincialism, satisfaction with the"president", identity, the attitude of "independence", and cross-tabulate statistical analysis with the party identification respectively. Finally, taking party identification as the dependent variable and other variables as independent variables, multiple logistic regression models are constructed to analyze the influencing factors of Taiwan voters' party identification. Statistics show that gender, age, education, family provincialism, satisfaction with the "president", identity and the attitude of "independence" have a significant effect on party identification, and occupation has no significant effect on the party identification.