软信息对网贷平台借款人的借款获得与违约风险的影响——来自“人人贷”的经验证据

The Influence of Soft Information on Borrowing Acquisition and Default Risk in P2P Lending——Evidence from Renrendai.com

个人对个人(P2P)网络借贷通过互联网将投资人(贷款人)与借款人直接联接,借助专业系统平台帮助借贷交易双方确立借贷关系并达成交易。由于"硬信息"严重不足,造成P2P网贷平台的信息不对称问题尤其突出。在借款人的借款信息中,"借款文本描述"为借款人提供了补充其借款事项相关信息的渠道,也为投资人提供了判断借款人真实借款用途以及信用状况的"软信息"。以"人人贷"网贷平台2014—2015年借款人订单数据作为研究样本,运用二元选择模型考察了"借款文本描述"项所包含的内容和情绪对于借款人的借款获得以及违约风险的影响,实证结果发现,在控制了借款事项、借款人基本信息、借款人信用以及获得借款的年度和地区等影响因素之后,"借款文本描述"所包含内容的完整性有助于提高借款人的借款成功率;而"借款文本描述"中情绪反应的存在却显著降低了借款人的借款成功率。但是内容和情绪对于借款人违约风险的揭示作用有限,很难从实证结果中获得强有力的支撑。

P2P lending provides investors and borrowers with direct connections through the Internet;it also establishes the debtor-creditor relation and complete the transaction process with the help of professional platform.Because of the inefficient“hard information”,the information asymmetry problem with P2P lending platform is very significant.For the information of borrowers,“borrowing description”provides borrowers with channels to provide further information about the borrowing;it also provides the investors with“soft information”to make sure of the borrowers’real borrowing purpose and credit status.Taking order data of Renrendai.com from2014to2015as the sample,with the help of Binary Choice Model,the authors carry out the empirical research on the influence of content and emotion in“borrowing description”on borrowers’borrowing acquisition and default risk.It is found that:after controlling such factors as borrowing issues,the basic information of borrowers,the credit of borrowers,year and regions,the completeness of“borrowing description”is helpful to increase the success rate of borrowing;while the existence of emotional response in“borrowing description”would significantly reduce the success rate of borrowing.But the role content and emotion plays in revealing borrowers’default risk is very limited,and we cannot find powerful support from the research fruits.