基于气候和环境因子的近海鲐鱼资源评估

Stock Assessment of Chub Mackerel(Scomber japonicus) Based on Environmental and Climatic Factors

【目的】研究环境与气候因子对鲐鱼的生长、繁殖和补充的影响。【方法】根据我国东、黄海鲐鱼灯光围网渔业捕获量、捕捞努力量建立剩余产量模型,尝试用6月产卵场(127°30′E、29°30′N)的平均海表温(SST)、Nino 3.4区海表温度距平值(Nino-SSTA)、太平洋中高纬年代际振荡(PDO)和南方涛动指数(SOI)4个因子对剩余产量模型进行优化,分析SST、Nino-SSTA、PDO和SOI对东、黄海鲐鱼资源量和最大可持续产量的影响。【结果】经过Pearson相关性分析,发现PDO对CPUE残差无影响,对SST、Nino-SSTA和SOI有影响。选取相关性较高的SST、Nino-SSTA对模型进行优化,发现优化后的模型对鲐鱼渔获量的拟合效果比优化前显著增强。【结论】6月份产卵场SST、Nino 3.4区海表温度距平值对鲐鱼资源变化有明显的影响,建议在渔业管理中应根据各年环境因子的情况确定最大可持续产量,合理制定管理策略。

【Objectives】To study the effect of environmental and climatic factors on the growth,reproduction and recruitment of chub mackerel(Scomber japonicus).【Method】According to the catch and fishing effort of the purse seine fishery with lights(PSFL),the authors have developed a surplus production model and tried to optimize the model by using monthly sea surface temperature(SST)at127°30′E and29°30′N of the spawning ground in June from2000to2011,sea surface temperature anomaly(Nino-SSTA)of Nino3.4area,Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO)index and southern oscillation index(SOI)from1990-2011.The impacts of SST,Nino-SSTA,PDO and SOI on the chub mackerel stock and its maximum sustainable yield were analyzed.【Result】According to the Pearson correlation analysis,the authors observed that there was no correlation between PDO and the residual CPUE(Catch Per Unit Effort),but the relationships between SST,Nino-SSTA,SOI and the residual CPUE were significant.The optimized models by using the most correlated two factors,i.e.SST and SSTA,were better than that with non-environmental factors.【Conclusion】Therefore,it is concluded that the SST at127°30′E and29°30′N of the spawning ground in June,and Nino-SSTA have greatly affected the stock resources of Chub mackerel.It is also suggested that we should consider the environmental factors of each year in developing management strategies.